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Predictive modelling - Wikipedia

Predictive modeling uses statistics to predict outcomes. Most often the event one wants to predict is in the future, but predictive modelling can be applied to any type of unknown event, regardless of when it occurred. For example, predictive models are often used to detect crimes and identify suspects, after the crime has taken place. In many cases the model is chosen on the basis of detection theory to try to .

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Predicting the Behavior of Techno-Social Systems | Science

Jul 24, 2009 · Here, I refer to "social aggregate states" as large-scale social systems consisting of millions of individuals that can be characterized in space (geographic and social) and time. The shift from the study of a small number of elements to the study of the behavior of large-scale aggregates is equivalent to the shift from atomic and molecular physics to the physics of matter.

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Predicting Stock Price Movement Using Social Media Analysis

Predicting Stock Price Movement Using Social Media Analysis Derek Tsui Stanford University Abstract In this project, we aim to predict stock prices by using machine learning techniques on data from StockTwits, a social media platform for investors. We demonstrate the results, and compare the prediction error, of several

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The Importance of Being Social - Scientific American Blog ...

Apr 24, 2012 · Does social contact matter more to some people than to others? Genetics suggests it does. Recent research hints that the biochemical carrier of the benefits of social .

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Welcome to ROSA P | Predicting Asphalt Mixture Skid ...

Aggregates were characterized using a number of conventional test methods, and aggregate texture was measured using the Aggregate Imaging System (AIMS) after different polishing intervals in the Micro-Deval device. Petrographic analyses were performed using thin sections made with aggregates from each of these sources.

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Aggregate dictionary definition | aggregate defined

aggregate definition: The definition of aggregate is a fruit or flower that has many similar parts or clusters that form it. (adjective) An example of an aggregate fruit is the blackberry. ...

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Social GAN: Socially Acceptable Trajectories With ...

or social robots that will share the same ecosystem as hu-mans. Humans can effectively negotiate complex social in-teractions, and these machines ought to be able to do the same. One concrete and important task to this end is the following: given observed motion trajectories of pedestri-ans (coordinates for the past e.g. 3.2 seconds), predict all

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Predicting aggregate social activities using continuous ...

Our experiments using two real social networks (Facebook and CiteSeer) reveal that the proposed PSAM model is effective in simulating social activity evolution and predicting aggregate social ...

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Predicting National Suicide Numbers with Social Media Data

Suicide is not only an individual phenomenon, but it is also influenced by social and environmental factors. With the high suicide rate and the abundance of social media data in South Korea, we have studied the potential of this new medium for predicting completed suicide at the population level. We tested two social media variables (suicide-related and dysphoria-related weblog entries) along ...

  • Published in: PLOS ONE · 2013Authors: Honghee Won · Woo Jae Myung · Gil Young Song · Won Hee Lee · Jongwon Kim · Bern.Affiliation: Samsung · Samsung Medical CenterAbout: Labour economics · Human factors and ergonomics · Physics · Famous persons · Suici.Get Price

Measuring Aggregate Social Capital Using Census Response .

in the validation of the use of CRRs as a measure of aggregate social capital, is to evaluate census response at a smaller level of geographic aggregation approximating a "neighborhood," such as the census tract. 2 Indeed, such a

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Predicting user activity level in social networks

A major kind of applications is to predict a user's future activities based on his/her historical social behaviors. In this paper, we focus on a fundamental task: to predict a user's future activity levels in a social network, e.g. weekly activeness, active or inactive. This problem is closely related to Social Customer Relationship Management ...

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Predicting the Present with Google Trends - frbsf

Predicting the Present with Google Trends SF Fed, March 18 Hyunyoung Choi Hal Varian . Searches for [hangover] ... Social Security Social Security Office Locations ... Aggregate over the Keywords Group. Predicting Unemployment with selected

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Predicting Aggregate Taxpayer Compliance Behavior

Predicting Aggregate Taxpayer Compliance Behavior 75 specification treats the value of α i for each state as a random draw from a probability distribution. An advan-tage of the fixed effects specification is that it produces consistent estimates of the parameters of the model even when the α i

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Predicting user activity level in social networks

A major kind of applications is to predict a user's future activities based on his/her historical social behaviors. In this paper, we focus on a fundamental task: to predict a user's future activity levels in a social network, e.g. weekly activeness, active or inactive. This problem is closely related to Social Customer Relationship Management ...

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Forecasting High Tide: Predicting Times of Elevated ...

cial systems has been attributed to the fact that observed aggregate social behavior, driven by individual human actions, can be described as mixtures of Poisson and non-Poisson processes, where these processes can be seen as modeling individual decision making [2]. Thus, we expect the aggregate behavior of a collection of

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Predicting Aggregate Social Activities using Continuous ...

We then propose a Parameterized Social Activity Model (PSAM) using continuous-time stochastic process for predicting aggregate social activities. With social activities evolving over time, PSAM itself also evolves and therefore dynamically captures the real-time characteristics of .

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Aggregates - definition of aggregates by The Free Dictionary

Define aggregates. aggregates synonyms, aggregates pronunciation, aggregates translation, English dictionary definition of aggregates. adj. 1. Constituting or amounting to a whole; total: aggregate .

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Social Sentiment Investing Tools—Think Twice Before ...

FINRA and the SEC's Office of Investor Education and Advocacy are issuing this Investor Alert to inform investors about social sentiment investing tools and highlight their risks. This Alert provides tips to consider before using tools that analyze or aggregate information from social media sources to make investment decisions or attempt to predict changes in the stock

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Predicting Aggregate Social Activities using Continuous ...

predict at individual level and then aggregate (e.g. predict the likelihood of posting a message for each user, and then compute the group-level aggregation). In social network evolution, we observe that aggregate ac-tivities provide a good indication of social network status. Considering social activities from a macro scope, some ac-

  • Published in: conference on information and knowledge management · 2012Authors: Shu Huang · Min Chen · Bo Luo · Dongwon LeeAffiliation: Pennsylvania State University · Johns Hopkins University · University of KansasAbout: Continuous-time stochastic processGet Price

Theory use in social predictions - PubMed Central (PMC)

In a commentary to our article on the role of theory and simulation in social predictions, Krueger (2012) argues that the role of theory is neglected in social psychology for a good reason. He considers evidence indicating that people readily generalize from themselves to others.

Predicting Stock Price Movement Using Social Media Analysis

Predicting Stock Price Movement Using Social Media Analysis Derek Tsui Stanford University Abstract In this project, we aim to predict stock prices by using machine learning techniques on data from StockTwits, a social media platform for investors. We demonstrate the results, and compare the prediction error, of several

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